Look of the Day for 10/16: Starters in trouble in NLCS Game 3
Jose Ramirez went over his hits + runs + RBIs prop on Tuesday night to cash yet another Look of the Day. That brings us to 12-4 in our last 16 plays, but we’re still not satisfied. Let’s stay hot with our favorite bet for Wednesday night’s NLCS Game 3.
Look of the Day: Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets over 0.5 runs 1st inning (-105 DraftKings)
The NLCS shifts to Queens on Wednesday night for Game 3 between the Dodgers and Mets, and we’re looking for lightning to strike early in this one.
Let’s begin with the starting pitchers. Walker Buehler is having the worst season of his career, as he ranks in the 16th percentile in xBA (.266), the 20th percentile in xERA (4.68) and the seventh percentile in whiff rate (19.4 percent). This Mets lineup is prone to strikeouts, but Buehler hasn’t been effective at forcing swings and misses all year. He’s given up 12 hits and seven earned runs in 10.0 innings of work this postseason.
As for Luis Severino, he’s also struggling of late with 21 hits allowed and 10 earned runs over his last three starts. Current Dodgers hitters have a .374 xwOBA and a .540 xSLG in 108 combined at-bats against the right-hander.
It won’t be easy for either pitcher to make it out of the first innings unscathed. Buehler has a 9.00 ERA in the first inning this season, and the top of New York’s lineup led by Francisco Lindor and Mark Vientos is red-hot right now. On the other side, Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani are a combined 14-40 (.350) with two home runs, five doubles and seven walks against Severino.
Both lineups are making a habit of jumping on starters early, and we think that continues in this matchup.
