What If The Astros Don’t Re-Sign Alex Bregman
Honestly, I’d be surprised if Alex Bregman would re-sign with the Astros simply due to the financials. As long as Jim Crane owned the franchise, he avoided handing out the type of contracts it would likely take to retain Bregman’s services. The club’s recent big contracts from last offseason — extension and free agency — for Jose Altuve and Josh Hader were each limited to five years. Yordan Alvarez’s extension in June 2022 was six years, but the Astros also bought out three arbitration years and three free-agent years. In other words, Houston made it worth their while financially in terms of AAV.
With Matt Chapman’s six-year, $151 million extension with the Giants probably serving as the floor in negotiations, Bregman is unlikely to sign anything less than six years at a considerable AAV. We could see the star third baseman receive seven- or eight-year offers depending on who enters the fray, especially once Juan Soto signs. It won’t shock me if he signs for something in the ballpark of seven years, $210 million, or eight years, $240 million. If so, then the odds feel high that it won’t be the Astros who make that offer.
So, if Bregman does indeed leave the Astros, what is next for the organization? Make no mistake that the Astros are unlikely to find a replacement —internally or externally — who did everything Bregman does, both on the field and in the clubhouse. Even with Bregman’s offensive profile presenting some red flags related to his tendencies at the plate (lower walk rate and on-base percentage), his defensive profile was as strong as ever. Even if we can assume with high confidence that his next contract won’t age well on the backend, the Astros will be hard-pressed to find someone who could provide similar value in the short term.
But even if the other options aren’t noteworthy, the Astros have them. Internally, Mauricio Dubón could receive more playing time at the hot corner unless Dana Brown finds a more suitable option. However, with relatively little power and a skill set that is better suited as a utility player, Dubón likely isn’t the full-time starter in any event. Zach Dezenzo, with only 65 plate appearances in the majors, stands in line for a spot on the active roster at first or third base. Shay Whitcomb is another prospect to monitor, but I wonder if defensive issues at the end of the season — four errors on September 27 against Seattle, for example — left a lasting impression for the offseason. Otherwise, at least internally, those three appear to be the likely favorites at third base if Bregman departs elsewhere.
