Could the Phillies be a fit for free agent Alex Bregman?.
Just like a year ago with Shohei Ohtani, there is no question about who the best player is in this free-agent class.
It’s Juan Soto, who may be headed for a $600 million payday and whose saga will be covered more closely than any other free agent’s.
But only one team can land Soto and many others will still need to upgrade their offenses, positioning the next-best position player on the market for a mega-deal of his own.
That would be Alex Bregman, a much less impactful hitter than Soto but a well-above-average all-around player in his own right.
Bregman turns 31 on March 30. He’s spent his entire nine-year career with the Astros, winning two World Series, making two All-Star teams and winning his first Gold Glove award this year.
His best season, by far, was 2019 when he was the MVP runner-up to Mike Trout. Bregman hit .296 that year with a 1.015 OPS, 37 doubles, 41 home runs and 112 RBI. He’s remained productive in the five years since but hasn’t hit better than .270 or posted an OPS higher than .820.
The team that signs Bregman isn’t getting the 2019 version, it’s getting the player who’s hit .261/.330/.445 the last five seasons with 162-game averages of 34 doubles and 25 homers.
That five-year slash-line certainly doesn’t jump off the page. For reference, Alec Bohm has hit .277/.329/.442 the last two seasons, essentially besting Bregman at the plate.
Defensively, Bregman is far superior to Bohm at third base. Bregman can also play shortstop and second base, though he hasn’t since 2019.
He’s an imperfect fit for the Phillies because they have their infield set with Bryce Harper at first base, Bryson Stott at second, Trea Turner at shortstop and Bohm at third. The only way Bregman would make sense for the Phils is if they move on from Bohm or Stott. Bohm is a more realistic trade candidate than Stott but neither is likely to be shipped out, and doing so is only logical if it fills a need at a different position. Otherwise, the team would be spending big on Bregman while offsetting a bulk of the improvement.
Bregman’s contract could fall in the $175M-$200M range because of his well-roundedness, his individual and team success and his positioning on the market behind Soto. The Giants extended Matt Chapman late in the season for $151 million over six years and Bregman should be able to top that in total dollars, AAV or both. He would do well to wait for Soto to sign because most of the teams that miss out on Soto would shift or intensify their interest in Bregman — teams like the Yankees, Blue Jays, Giants, Mets, maybe the Phillies, and of course, Bregman’s own Astros.
Beyond Soto and Bregman, most of the top MLB free agents are either starting pitchers or infielders. The Phillies’ strongest unit is their rotation, which needs only candidates to battle for the fifth starter’s job. And they wouldn’t have a spot for some of the other top bats like Pete Alonso, Christian Walker or Willy Adames.
After Soto and Bregman, you’re looking at a tier of free agents that includes Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Santander, Jurickson Profar and Tyler O’Neill. Good players, three of whom are coming off career years, but can any of them be the primary offensive upgrade this winter for a team that views anything other than a championship as a disappointment?
Dave Dombrowski is in San Antonio this week for MLB’s GM Meetings and groundwork has almost certainly already been laid regarding trade candidates. The Phillies’ front office will need to either show some creativity this offseason or add quality and quantity in free agency because the class doesn’t suit their needs beyond a few players at the very top.
