Six things you might have missed from Sunderland 2-1 City.
After Norwich City’s collapse at Sunderland on Saturday, Connor Southwell delivers six things you might have missed from the Stadium of Light.
1 – Concerning trends
Norwich have now dropped 21 points from winning positions, that is more than any other side in the entire EFL. It is six more than the next nearest second-tier side Stoke (15).
Without it, they would sit top of the Championship. It points to a wider issue of game management for this City side.
It is the second successive weekend that Norwich have lost from a winning position, having suffered the same fate against Burnley at Carrow Road last weekend.
Norwich work hard to get themselves into winning positions, their opponents don’t need to chase with the same vigour or effort levels to score chances against Thorup’s team. The defensive numbers currently make for concerning reading.
They have conceded at least two goals in 10 of their last 12 matches – with the exception of their 6-1 victory over Plymouth and goalless draw with Portsmouth – that is an unsustainable level and places a higher demand on their attacking output.
Prior to this run, they had conceded two goals in three of 10 matches. QPR scored three from an expected goals return of 0.8. Burnley scored two from an expected goals return of 0.5, and Sunderland scored twice from an expected goals return of 0.6.
For context, their defensive expected goals return per 90 (1.15 per game) is lower than under David Wagner (1.38 per game). That proves that individual errors, both goalkeeping and defensively, are proving especially harmful.
2 – Compare and contrast
After so much discourse surrounding their approach away from home, Norwich executed a balanced and impressive first half performance.
In the final analysis, that will make the final outcome all the more frustrating to Johannes Hoff Thorup and his coaching team.
Despite Niall Quinn’s half-time view that Sunderland had been the better team – Norwich proved they could pragmatically adapt their approach away from Carrow Road in a way that could translate to success.
At the interval of this encounter, City had enjoyed 53pc of possession, had four shots, three on target, higher expected goals for, won more tackles, duels and limited Sunderland to zero shots on Angus Gunn’s goal and just seven touches in their box.
It was a performance that could be described as the perfect away display beyond only possessing a one-goal margin.
But Sunderland’s aggressive approach proved problematic in the opening period of the second half. From Dan Ballard’s header two minutes after the restart, City were the masters of their own downfall.
The hosts share of possession rose from 47pc to 54pc, their expected goals rate from 0.13 to 0.48, from zero shots on target to four and they won more duels and had 14 touches in Norwich’s box. It was a transformation from that first period.
City are unable to weather the storm in periods of adversity or prevent the swing of momentum.
3 – Disciplinary concerns
Jose Cordoba’s red card was Norwich City’s third of the Championship campaign after Kenny McLean’s in-game and retrospective red card.
With Angus Gunn likely to be retrospectively banned for their Boxing Day clash against Millwall after kicking the substitute board in their 3-0 defeat to QPR, it has raised questions about City’s disciplinary record.
Norwich have now picked up 53 yellow cards in 22 Championship matches – an average of 2.4 cautions per match.
That is the second-highest amount in the Championship behind Preston North End, who have been shown 61 bookings and have seen four players handed a red card, plus striker Milutin Osmajic being retrospectively punished for a bite on Blackburn’s Owen Beck.
It feeds into the feeling that City have shown ill-discipline throughout this Championship campaign. Many within the camp feel the group is overly emotional and unable to manage their feelings in moments of pressure.
Last season, City were shown 85 yellow cards in 46 Championship matches. That was the 18th highest in the Championship.
At their current rate, City are on course to earn 110 cautions over the course of this campaign. That would match the record of Preston from last season, who were the worst behaved side in the division.
Those numbers prove there is an issue in need of being addressed as the Championship campaign continues.
4 – 17/18 comparisons
Since Thorup’s arrival at Carrow Road in the summer and the decision to embark on a new strategy, there has been a willingness to compare to Daniel Farke’s debut campaign at Norwich City in 2017/18.
That proved to be transitional for the Canaries. They finished 14th on 60 points and endured similar runs without victory that Norwich are experiencing currently.
This crop of players have won just two of their last 14 Championship matches spanning between October and December.
Farke’s class of 17/18 endured a similar run, winning one of 10 games during the same period. That included seven defeats. They would go onto have a run that saw win three of their final 16 fixtures later in the campaign, concluding with a 5-1 defeat to Sheffield Wednesday on the final day.
At the same stage of that campaign, Farke’s City had taken 27 points from 23 matches. They sat 16th in the table having won seven, drawn six and lost ten. They had scored just 22 and conceded 30, sitting with a minus-eight goal difference.
Thorup’s side have a similar record. They’ve taken a point fewer and have played a game less. Of their opening 22 matches, City have won six, drawn eight and lost eight. They have scored and conceded more than Farke’s side.
On that metric, this campaign currently feels like a mid-table transition. But there is no guarantee that what follows is a 2018/19 crusade to the title in the way Farke achieved.
Norwich City’s away support haven’t had much to cheer this calendar year.
Norwich City’s away support haven’t had much to cheer this calendar year. (Image: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd)
5 – Travel sickness
Norwich City’s away travels in 2024 have ended in defeat on Wearside, and it was 12 months of slim pickings for those hearty souls regularly following their side away from Carrow Road.
Spanning two head coaches, seasons and several players – Norwich won just five of their 22 Championship away matches since January 1st, taking seven draws and extracting just 22 points.
They scored nine fewer goals than they conceded and the victories came at Hull, Stoke, Preston, Coventry and Derby.
That is without adding in the 4-0 play-off semi final second leg drubbing against Daniel Farke’s Leeds United in May and an FA Cup fourth round defeat to Liverpool that would add nine more goals in the conceded column.
Thorup has spoken openly about the need to reverse that trend heading into 2025 – there is a need to discover a way to consistently and sustainably achieve results on the road.
Norwich currently sit 12th in the away table with 10 points. Throughout the Championship table, away form has been poor. 11 teams have taken fewer than double figures in terms of points, three teams are yet to win away and 14 teams, including City, haven’t won more than twice.
That is a code Thorup must crack if he wants to unlock success for Norwich.
Norwich City are chasing a festive pick-me-up against Millwall and QPR.
Norwich City are chasing a festive pick-me-up against Millwall and QPR. (Image: Paul Chesterton/Focus Images Ltd).
6 – Festive feeling
Given the current run of form and back-to-back defeats – City will be hoping to extract maximum points from a festive home double header against Millwall and QPR.
Managerless Millwall have taken just eight points on their travels and are reportedly closing in on the appointment of Alex Neil – but it remains to be seen whether an appointment will be completed before Boxing Day.
Then is the small matter of a visit from QPR with Norwich feeling a sense of injustice surrounding the disciplinary situation that has affected them heavily with Kenny McLean and Angus Gunn.
If City can achieve two wins and positive performances, it will help lift the mood on a situation that has begun to regress. A patient fanbase is understandably beginning to wobble after two victories in 14.
That long versus short-term debate is beginning to bubble to the surface – but the two are interlinked. City need results to retain the belief in Thorup and Ben Knapper’s vision.
There’s a misconception that supporting a long-term project involves suppressing emotion and ruining the ‘feel’ of football, but the two aren’t mutually exclusive. Fans can believe in the long-term future whilst being concerned about the here and now.
Victories would help lift the mood surrounding the Canaries after a difficult spell of form.
