Luton Town – The Harsh Reality We Face Is Relegation
The stark reality is that Luton Town are in a relegation fight and currently sit bottom of the EFL Championship and are sinking fast.
With just 12 games left to play, there is a real danger that, sadly, we’ll be relegated for a second consecutive season, not something that would have deemed to be possible when we won the EFL Championship play-off final, against Coventry at Wembley, back in May 2023.
But, if you are one of those who are in denial and believe there is ample time to plot an escape, then please read on.
Studying the data, from the last the last four seasons we find:
• 2020/2021 – Derby County stayed up with 44 points
• 2021/2022 – Reading stayed up with 41 points
• 2022/2023 – Cardiff City stayed up with 49 points
• 2023/2024 – Plymouth stayed up with 51 points
If we calculate an average points total, over the last four seasons, needed to stay up, we arrive at a figure of 46.25, rounded up to 47 points.
So, with 28 points to our name and with 12 games left, Luton Town would have to win another 19 points out of the 36 available.
To achieve those 19 points, Luton Town would have to achieve the following:
• 6 wins 1 draw = 19 points
• 5 wins 4 draws = 19 points
• 4 wins 7 draws = 19 points
Any other combination would result in relegation.
But, more worryingly, if we only concentrate on the last two seasons:
• 2022/2023 – Cardiff City stayed up with 49 points
• 2023/2024 – Plymouth stayed up with 51 points
The average rises to 50 points, meaning Luton Town would have to earn another 22 points out of the 36 points left to win.
If that were the case, the Hatters would have to achieve the following:
• 7 wins 1 draw = 22 points
• 6 wins 4 draws = 22 points
• 5 wins 6 draws = 22 points
Any other combination would result in relegation.
Therefore, looking at the 12 remaining fixtures, 6 of which are at home and 6 of which are away from home:
• 01-March – Portsmouth (h)
• 08-March – Burnley (a)
• 11-March – Cardiff City (a)
• 15-March – Middlesbrough (h)
• 29-March – Hull City (a)
• 05-April – Leeds United (h)
• 08-April – Stoke City (a)
• 12-April – Blackburn Rovers (h)
• 18-April – Derby County (a)
• 21-April – Bristol City (h)
• 26-April – Coventry City (h)
• 03-May – West Bromwich Albion (a)
You can see we face a difficult conclusion to the 2024/2025 season with, among the promotion contenders, Burnley (a), Leeds United (h) and a thriving Coventry City (h) to play.
But, more importantly, there are numerous 6-pointers to play, against Hull City (a), Stoke City (a) and Derby County (a). Considering our appalling away record, this season, are you confident we can pick up much needed and necessary valuable points at those three grounds?
To me, the longer I look at those fixtures we have left and the number of wins we need, for both the 47 point and 50 point scenarios, the more concerned I become and the more convinced I am that whatever we manage to do in those last 12 games it will be too little too late.
But, do you concur with my views or am I being enveloped by gloom and doom?
Please feel free to have your say in the comment facility beneath this article and, if possible, enlighten me as to where those required wins are going to come from?
