Experts Have a Few Reasons for Concern for Padres’ Lineup
Last season, the Padres posted a 93-69 record and earned a Wild Card bid. After taking down the Atlanta Braves in the Wild Card round, the Padres were ousted by eventual World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers in five games. Those 93 wins were the most from the Padres since the club won 98 in 1998.
This year, the goal remains the same and the Dodgers seem to be in the way. San Diego has not won the NL West since 2006 while finishing second in three of the last five seasons. Bleacher Report expects more of the same from the Padres but there are plenty of reasons to remain optimistic, ranking the unit ninth-best in Major League Baseball. Even then, there are a few areas of concern.
Replacing talent year after year is a challenge for all teams but the Padres losing Jurickson Profar could be an issue: “Jurickson Profar hit 24 home runs, drove in 85 runs, and walked 76 times last season. The Padres are going to be hard-pressed to get a fraction of that production from Jason Heyward and Connor Joe in 2025.” As they put it, Profar was key. He slashed .280/.380/.459 with 24 home runs and 85 RBI while compiling 3.6 bWAR. It was a career year for the left fielder. He also put up a career-best 134 OPS+ in 668 plate appearances.
Now, the team must replace him in the aggregate as he’s now with the Atlanta Braves. 35-year-old Heyward is coming off a 1.2 bWAR season that saw him signed by the Houston Astros after the Los Angeles Dodgers cut him loose in August. In 258 combined plate appearances, he slashed .211/.288/.412 with 10 home runs and 38 RBI. Connor Joe was a first-round pick from the Pittsburgh Pirates and was signed as a free agent by the Padres.
Last year, Joe managed 0.6 bWAR and had a 92 OPS+. Prior to the 2023 season, the Padres signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million deal. He spent the first 10 years of his MLB career with the Boston Red Sox and was an All-Star and Silver Slugger. He took a step back last year: “In 111 games last season, Xander Bogaerts hit .264 with a .688 OPS. The five-time Silver Slugger still has nine years remaining on his $280 million contract.”
In his first season in San Diego, he was worth the money. He amassed 4.2 bWAR and had a 117 OPS+. Last year, not so much. He did only play in 111 games as he dealt with a fractured left shoulder suffered in May. He may be due to get back to form. Hopefully, for the Padres’ sake on the field and in the checkbook, he will be the 5.0+ bWAR player they signed him to be. Finally, the projected Designated Hitter, Jose Iglesias, has some reason for concern:
“It just feels like Jose Iglesias is going to have a very difficult time replicating the magic he found with the New York Mets last season when he hit .337 in 85 games after not paying in the majors at all the prior year.” For his entire career, Iglesias has been a below-average player. Only in 2013, 2020, and 2024 did he finish the season with an OPS+ of over 100. Last year was easily the best season of his career with 3.1 bWAR. Is that who he is? Or, more likely, was 2024 a fluke and he will regress back to what he was in most other seasons?
