How long is Hector Neris going to stick on the roster?
There’s something to be said for being punished for your mistakes immediately…
When I first started this daily question thingamajig, I knew I had to figure out a way to get to the start of the season, because once said season was started, the discussion points would come naturally. To that end, though, I think I’m gonna have more to say than just a question, here.
Let’s talk about the bullpen, as it is. Here are the Depth Charts projections.
Basically, of the current relief corps, we can put guys into a few tiers:
Really good: Aaron Bummer, Raisel Iglesias
More than solid: Dylan Lee, Pierce Johnson
A reliever: Daysbel Hernandez
Ehhhhhhhhhhhh: Jose Suarez
Worse than ehhhhh: Hector Neris, Enyel De Los Santos
You can compress the last two tiers if you want, it’s whatever. (We can argue about the utility of projecting ERA versus FIP another time.)
We know that when Chris Sale departed the game and a bullpen decision had to be made, the prospective outlook was like this:
6th inning: L-R-L due up
7th inning: some mix of bottom and top of lineup, possibly looping into R-L-R-R
8th: some mix of heart of order and bottom
9th: this is probably way too far to forecast, but it was gonna be Iglesias anyway
We also know that with a one-run lead, leverage for the home half of a game is:
1.56 for the sixth
1.72 for the seventh
2.16 for the eighth
2.73 for the ninth
So, assuming everything went to plan, you’d want something like: Iglesias for the ninth, Bummer for the eighth, Johnson for the seventh, and Lee for the sixth. You also could’ve swapped Johnson and Bummer depending on the matchups when you got there. Daysbel Hernandez was another right-handed option.
But, as you know, the Braves went with Neris. And they paid the price. It’s not clear why, given the above. Maybe both Johnson and Hernandez were unavailable, but that seems unlikely.
I won’t belabor the point, you have the info you need up there.
A repeat of this usage of Neris is likely going to lead to dissatisfaction and his exit from the roster. So, I’ll ask you: how long does he actually last? Nate Jones lasted until May 1 in 2021. Longer or shorter?
Daily Notes
Record: 0-1
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA: .336 | .338 (Season rank: 13th | 10th)
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA allowed: .368 | .242 (Season rank: 22nd | 3rd)
Yesterday’s homers: 2
Yesterday’s homers allowed: 1
Record when out-xwOBAing: 0-1 (League: 9-5)
Record when out-xwOBAed: n/a (League: 5-9)
Record when out-wOBAing: n/a (League: 13-1)
Record when out-wOBAed: 0-1 (League: 1-13)
Record when outhomering: 0-1 (League: 8-2)
Record when outhomered: n/a (League: 2-8)
