Can Justin Verlander Be Trusted in the Playoffs?
Originally posted on Just Baseball | By Eric Treuden | Last updated 9/13/24
It’s been a long couple of years for future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander. He’s been injured, he’s been through free agency, he’s been traded and lately – he’s vastly underperformed his career norm.
Kicking off the current campaign, the right-hander began the year on the injured list as he dealt with some shoulder inflammation. He debuted in late April, pitched all throughout May and then made just two starts in June (neck discomfort), zero in July, two in August and is through two painful September outings to this point.
There’s been some extremely small glimpses of hope in his performances (highlighted by a seven shutout-inning start against the Tigers … back in May), but for the most part, Verlander’s starts have been difficult watches.
On the season, the 41-year-old is 3-6 with a 5.30 ERA, 5.09 FIP and 75 ERA+. His most recent outing came on Sunday against the Diamondbacks and he allowed eight runs on as many hits through just three innings of work. He also surrendered a grand slam to Pavin Smith, which was the first grand slam he gave up since all the way back in April … of 2010.
In the start before that, he allowed five runs on eight hits in 4.2 innings of work against the Reds. He also walked four batters and struck out three.
That’s just about as un-Verlander-like as it gets.
The Houston Astros are marching towards yet another postseason berth, but the question needs to be asked: does Verlander deserve to see the mound at all during meaningful October games?
Justin Verlander Isn’t Pitching Like a Playoff Starter
Right now, it’s difficult to see a scenario where the 19-year veteran makes a playoff start. His last few outings have shown a very concerning and very obvious loss of command which, again, is unlike him. This could be a sign of his age catching up to him, and if it is, he’s had a hell of a run.
Verlander is one of the most accomplished starting pitchers we’ve ever seen and as previously stated, he’s a lock to make the Hall of Fame once he’s eligible. He’s won three Cy Young Awards and finished second twice. He also has a Triple Crown, two World Series rings and nine All-Star Game selections under his belt.
His past accolades don’t hide the fact that things haven’t been going well for him lately.
Both pre- and post-injury, Verlander hasn’t looked like himself. His velocity is dipping and his pitches aren’t moving the way they used to, which is a recipe for disaster.
The total loss of command is at the heart of his issues. Far too often, Verlander is throwing extra pitches and dealing with a ton of deep counts. His four-seamer has flattened out and, at 94 mph, is much more hittable than it used to be. In that start against the Dbacks on Sunday, seven of their eight hits came against Verlander’s four-seamer.
As relayed by Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, Astros manager said of Verlander: “I would not bet against someone with that pedigree and how good this guy’s been for a very long time. I just know that he’s going to go back and work and try to figure some stuff out. This guy has been really good for a very long time … We have to go back to the drawing board and get him going. We need him.”
The Astros’ Rotation Will Be Fine Without Him
With the Astros deploying a six-man rotation, Verlander is easily the weakest link. Since the club is holding such a small lead over the Mariners in the AL West (four-and-a-half games), it’s worth wondering if Verlander either makes a potential playoff roster as a reliever or is left off entirely.
Leaving off somebody of his pedigree feels nuts, but with the way he’s been pitching, how can you rely on him in the most important games of the season?
Four of the five other starters in this rotation have been outstanding, which would be enough to get the Astros through a best-of-five series. Hunter Brown has a 3.59 ERA through 28 starts, with a 3.60 FIP and 110 ERA+.
Framber Valdez has a 2.91 ERA, 3.15 FIP and 135 ERA+ through 26 outings. He’s pitching himself into the conversation for AL Cy Young, even if Tarik Skubal has that one in the bag.
Ronel Blanco, who threw a no-hitter earlier this year, has maintained strong numbers throughout the season. His 2.99 ERA is fourth amongst qualifying AL starters, two spots behind Valdez.
Then there’s Yusei Kikuchi, who’s been one of the top deadline acquisitions this year. The southpaw has not gone less than 5.1 innings in any start post-trade and already has four outings with seven or more strikeouts. The Astros have uncovered a gem, and he’s going to be crucial down the stretch for them.
Spencer Arrighetti is the other question mark in the rotation, but he’s shown immense promise here and there during his rookie campaign. The 24-year-old will go seven shutout innings with 11 strikeouts in one start then surrender nine runs in under an inning in the next. He’s not fully reliable yet, but he’s got it in him to be a success story for Houston.
Closing Thoughts
It’s anyone’s guess as to whether Verlander is going to be able to turn things around in time for the postseason. He’s got 38 playoff appearances and 226 innings under his belt over the course of his career and at times, he’s been just as reliable as he was during the regular season.
The Astros have a strong rotation aside from Verlander, so if the club needs to roll with the rest of the group over the living legend, they should still be safe.
