What would Nolan Arenado bring to the Astros?..
Comparing Arenado to two other players..
The talks between the Houston Astros and St. Louis Cardinals have supposedly reopened on Nolan Arenado. I should point out that there is no telling how serious these discussions are or how likely a move is. There are a number of moving parts here. First, would Arenado even waive the no-trade clause this time around or is he dead set against coming to Houston? Secondly, is the same package on the board or has either side adjusted their position due to the proximity to the upcoming season?
Given those parameters I should also mention that simply the idea of writing about this is not necessarily an endorsement or indictment of the move. Obviously, we have little idea of the particulars and any opinion I might have would be relative to those particulars. This is simply an overview of the kind of player we are looking at.
The methods will be similar to the last piece I did on Brendan Rodgers and Mauricio Dubon. I am adding one wrinkle. I will have three lines for each player after I post the per 500 plate appearance numbers over the past four seasons. There will be a pure average, an optimistic number where I omit the worst season, and a pessimistic number where I omit the best season.
Nolan Arenado
2021: 67 RC, 0 Rbaser, 5 Rfield, 2 Rpos, 74 total runs, 31 runs above replacement
2022: 84 RC, 0 Rbaser, 15 Rfield, 2 Rpos, 101 total runs, 60 runs above replacement
2023: 62 RC, -2 Rbaser, 1 Rfield, 2 Rpos, 63 total runs, 20 runs above replacement
2024: 57 RC, -2 Rbaser, 5 Rfield, 3 Rpos, 63 total runs, 20 runs above replacement
AVG: 68 RC, -1 Rbaser, 7 Rfield, 2 Rpos, 76 total runs, 33 runs above replacement
Opt: 71 RC, -1 Rbaser, 8 Rfield, 2 Rpos, 80 total runs, 37 runs above replacement
Pess: 62 RC, -1 Rbaser, 4 Rfield, 2 Rpos, 67 total runs, 24 runs above replacement
You’ll forgive me for a lacking a complete understanding of advanced statistics. I teach English classes during the day. However, if I put on my amateur statistician cap for a moment, it looks like there is more risk on the bottom end then a possible career year on the upper end. Keep in mind that ten runs usually equals one win, so the range for Arenado is somewhere between 2.5 and 3.5 wins.
Keep in mind, we would not be replacing Isaac Paredes or Jose Altuve. Those guys would still be in the starting lineup. The difference comes in whoever would be playing second base in the event that Altuve moves to left or in who would play left field if Altuve stays put. My guess is that those guys would come in north of replacement level, so you would gain somewhere between 1.5 and 2.5 wins.
Isaac Paredes
2021: 41 RC, -6 Rbaser, -12 Rfield, 6 Rpos, 29 total runs, -24 runs above replacement
2022: 56 RC, -1 Rbaser, 7 Rfield, 1 Rpos, 63 total runs, 32 runs above replacement
2023: 76 RC, -1 Rbaser, -2 Rfield, 2 Rpos, 75 total runs, 37 runs above replacement
2024: 60 RC, -2 Rbaser, -2 Rfield. 2 Rpos, 58 total runs, 22 runs above replacement
AVG: 58 RC, -3 Rbaser, -2 Rfield, 3 Rpos, 56 total runs, 17 runs above replacement
Opt: 64 RC, -1 Rbaser, 1 Rfield, 3 Rpos, 67 total runs, 30 runs above replacement
Pess: 52 RC, -3 Rbaser, -5 Rfield, 2 Rpos, 46 total runs, 10 runs above replacement
Paredes worst season is certainly more out of whack than his best season. Given that his worst season came in his first season and had only 85 plate appearances, we probably could simply ignore it and look at the average or the optimistic numbers as a more likely bench mark. Optimistically that makes him a three win player. So, Arenado and Paredes are similar in overall value at this point in their careers.
What would be interesting is seeing how the overall lineup looks. We know Arenado and Paredes would be similar players. Shoe horning in guys like Christian Walker, Jeremy Pena, Yainer Diaz, and Jose Altuve would make such a comparison interesting. I’ll put that on my to do list.
It doesn’t take a mathematical genius to see how incredibly consistent Bregman has been. He is essentially a three win player either way. Keep in mind this is over 500 plate appearances. Maybe he becomes a four win player with the increased durability he has shown. The same could be said of Arenado.
Whether one considers him a three or four win player, we can all agree that 40 million is too much. If we follow the eight million per win mark currently set as the standard on Fangraphs then the Red Sox are paying him like a five win player.
Final Thoughts
This is usually where a financial investor type utters the key line “past performance is not necessarily a predictor of future performance.” They would be right. These numbers indicate what these guys have done to this point. It is not necessarily in line with what they are likely to do. Bregman’s numbers have been stable where Paredes’ numbers seem to be improving. Arenado’s numbers are not improving and appear to be on their way down. That is a huge red flag.
However, the mark of a good deal is not only the player himself but what your ultimate investment is in that player. If the Cards chip in some cash then you might be paying him like a two win player. That seems to be more than reasonable for 2025 at least and perhaps even 2026. From there, it would just be a question of the prospect capital going the other way.
There is also the question of the competitive balance tax. Is the extra one or two wins in the standings worth the penalties that would come with it? The Astros are currently in a position to reset the clock and potentially make a big splash next offseason. Getting Arenado would be a significant part of that splash. Is one year of Arenado and whatever he could bring in 2026 equal to the player they could get with the money they could rathole? It’s actually a closer call then you might think. The difference could come down to the draft pool and international pool penalties that would come with blowing past the tax. Only Jim Crane knows if that is something he feels comfortable doing.
