February 25, 2025
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St. Louis Cardinals v Toronto Blue Jays

Astros decision to pursue Nolan Arenado proves Houston hasn’t learned their lesson…

Up to and including the decision to not bring back Alex Bregman, the Houston Astros’ offseason was, at least, logical. Reasonable people can disagree whether Houston made the correct choices or not, but the Astros ended up covering all of their roster holes with real talent, and did so without completely imploding their payroll. All that started with the Astros’ first attempt to trade for Nolan Arenado.

As soon as contract talks with Bregman stalled, Houston started pivoting toward other options and nearly traded for Arenado before he vetoed the deal. Undeterred, the Astros pivoted to a the trade that sent Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs and brought back Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith. After that, Arenado became an afterthought.

St. Louis Cardinals v Toronto Blue Jays
However, news over the weekend revealed that the Astros somehow re-engaged in Arenado trade talks and this is where things could go off the rails. Frankly, it would look like a very familiar mistake.

Astros revisiting Nolan Arenado trade just doesn’t make any sense
There’s wasn’t anything inherently wrong with at least kicking the tires on an Arenado trade originally. The Astros weren’t going to re-sign Bregman, needed a third baseman, and Arenado the type of career numbers to dream on. The amount of Arenado’s salary the St. Louis Cardinals are willing to pay and actual asking price both mattered, but there was a rationale behind it.

St. Louis Cardinals v Toronto Blue Jays

Those no longer exist. The Astros have options at third base, even without Bregman, and Arenado is coming off his worst year at the plate since his rookie season. Why is there this sudden urgency to get a deal done? Is Astros owner Jim Crane is having another Jose Abreu moment, and pushing the team to sign an aging and declining veteran bat for little to no reason beyond vanity?

St. Louis Cardinals v Toronto Blue Jays
So far, it doesn’t seem like much is going to come from the latest Arenado trade negotiations. Reports suggest there hasn’t been any actual movement towards an Arenado trade outside of Houston checking in. However, the thought process is weird and makes one wonder why the Astros keep trying to make this move work given every other move they have made this offseason.

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