The Pitching Lab Is Doing Something Cool Again
Whenever I think of the top organizations in pitching development, a few immediately come to mind: the Dodgers, for example. How about the Guardians? Perhaps the Rays? There are others to include in the conversation, but those are typically the three clubs I think of first when considering this topic. Outside of those three, there is no established hierarchy. However, the Astros consistently remain among those clubs in the conversation.
Houston’s pitching development is renowned for transforming a diverse array of pitchers, ranging from unheralded prospects to seasoned veterans. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole stand out as the most prominent examples. Charlie Morton is another player who revitalized his career with the organization. Recently, the international arms that the Astros signed with little to no fanfare have developed into productive pitchers at the Major League level, including Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, José Urquidy, and Luis Garcia.
This reputation within pitching development is why Hayden Wesneski caught my eye when the trade return for Kyle Tucker was announced. The Astros needed additional pitching depth, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Lance McCullers Jr. and Garcia. It also helped matters that Wesneski not only has experience starting, but he can also pitch out of the bullpen. A 2025 version of Brad Peacock, if you will.
My expectations for Wesneski this season may be as high as that of a mid-rotation arm to a roughly serviceable reliever in the bullpen. This presents a modest range of outcomes, and I think that’s a pretty fair outlook. However, even in the early portions of this season, I definitely wasn’t expecting Wesneski to rank among the strikeout rate leaders.
There is a mix of expected and unexpected names on this list, including Wesneski. However, while the right-hander hasn’t achieved a shiny ERA or FIP to gain more attention, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is exceptional thus far. In 18 innings, Wesneski has walked only three batters while striking out 21. But he also has a 2.93 xFIP, which limits home runs to 10.5% of induced fly balls. Cut down on that 25% HR/FB rate, and those results will hopefully improve. Of course, there is his .132 BABIP that could regress, but those home runs have been a problem so far.
I want to see Wesneski pitch in a couple more games before making any grand declarations, but there is a lot to like thus far. His sweeper and changeup have graded out pretty well according to Stuff+ in his first three starts. Even his cutter, while still viewed as below average per the model, has improved. He and the Astros have tinkered extensively with his pitches, so that will require a more in-depth post to explore all of those changes.
If the pitching lab can continue to work its magic with Wesneski, I feel more optimistic about the state of the rotation moving forward, especially with Spencer Arrighetti sidelined for a while due to a broken right thumb. The sample thus far — 18 innings — carries a lot of weight, so it’ll take some time before we can feel increasingly confident about this newfound improvement. But it’ll be nice to see it continue not only for Wesneski but also for the Astros.
