Impacts Of Matt Chapman’s Extension On Alex Bregman.
Matt Chapman’s extension with the Giants will possibly serve as a floor for negotiations in Alex Bregman’s free agency.
Alex Bregman’s upcoming trip into free agency was always going to be fascinating. For one, he likely holds more importance to the Astros than most, if not all, other clubs. There are sentimental reasons and his place in franchise lore to consider. For other suitors, there is also the sign-stealing scandal factor and how peak Bregman at the plate occurred during those years. But that feels like a secondary concern at this point. More importantly, there is his recent performance to take into account along with his age. Slow starts, for example, have become an increasingly common occurrence in 2023 and 2024 followed by Bregman getting hot as summer rolls around.
Since his two-home run day against the A’s on May 13, however, Bregman has been one of the top twenty hitters in baseball, hitting .285/.336/.521 with 20 home runs and a 142 wRC+. He started pulling the ball again, although his season average (38.3%) is a downward continuation from previous seasons. But, again, the results have been encouraging following that dreadful start. I doubt those slow starts scare any serious suitors off.
I always figured a second contract extension with Houston for Bregman was a long shot, especially if Jim Crane sticks to historical precedence. From the outside looking in, I doubt there is any reason to expect a change from that stance soon. With the news that Bregman’s primary comp in this winter’s upcoming free agency, Matt Chapman, signed a six-year, $151 million extension with the Giants, we at least now get a sense of the former’s starting point in negotiations. I mean, he will be the top option at third base on the market, so he will be in demand. The question is whether his demands — whatever those are — and reality syncs.
With Chapman getting that sixth year and being roughly a year older than Bregman, I doubt we’ll see the latter sign for anything less — both in the number of years and salary. On an annual basis, if distributed evenly, Chapman’s extension salary is around $25.1 million per season. Bregman should aim for at least that amount annually, if not more, based on his overall performance dating back to 2021.
For context, Bregman’s AAV for CBT purposes has remained constant at $20 million per season for a while, but his actual annual salary has varied from $13 million in 2021 and 2022 to $30.5 million in 2023 and 2024. The Astros’ extension under Jeff Luhnow was creative in this regard as the club was able to minimize the impact on Bregman’s salary as the rest of the roster became more expensive.
In terms of the financials, the Astros will have some room to re-sign Alex Bregman, even if the tax thresholds play a larger role than this year. But it’ll be tight. Before arbitration, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Houston will have roughly $80 million of payroll space before reaching the first tax threshold of $241 million. With multiple players due raises in arbitration, it won’t be nearly that much in reality. The Astros, however, can certainly be creative with the AAV distribution as they did in the past. In any case, Chapman’s new extension at least provides a floor of expectations. Alas, I’d be surprised if Bregman doesn’t exceed that contract in terms of annual salary. If the term pushes six years, I have my doubts whether the Astros would offer that much. But I’ve been surprised in the past and could certainly be again.
