Sale or Wheeler: Which Longtime Ace Will Win His First Cy Young in 2024?
When Just Baseball looked at the NL Cy Young odds at the end of May and June, Zack Wheeler was the favorite to take home the league’s top pitching prize. However, a poor outing on July 29 (5.0 IP, 7 ER) raised his ERA from 2.55 to 2.94 and helped Chris Sale jump ahead in the Cy Young race.
Thus, Sale was the favorite when Just Baseball looked at the odds at the end of July, and he maintained his position at the top during a mid-August check-in. He remains the odds-on favorite with just over three weeks left to play in the 2024 regular season.
It certainly seems like Sale is destined to win his first career Cy Young Award, but the season isn’t over quite yet. Recency bias is a powerful thing, but don’t forget that Wheeler was the favorite for a significant portion of the season, too.
A single blow-up outing from Sale could tip the scales back in Wheeler’s favor – or at least make for a much more difficult decision for the BBWAA voters.
Chris Sale leads the National League with 16 wins, 206 strikeouts, and a 2.46 ERA.
If he maintains his lead in all three categories, he’ll become the first pitcher to win a Triple Crown since Shane Bieber in 2020. He’ll be the first NL pitcher to win a Triple Crown since Clayton Kershaw in 2011. He’ll be the first pitcher in Braves franchise history to win a Triple Crown since John Clarkson in 1889.
And he will almost certainly win the National League Cy Young Award. Since the introduction of the Cy Young in 1956, 14 pitchers have won a Triple Crown. All 14 have also won the Cy Young.
